A False Increase

At first glance, the $895.2 billion President Joe Biden proposed March 11 for national defense for fiscal 2025 looks like a lot of money.

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The amount is the highest request for defense ever. And it’s far more than any other nation spends on its military, although spending comparisons with other nations are tricky, especially authoritative regimes, which have low personnel costs and state-controlled defense industries.

Biden says the increase is needed to enhance deterrence against China and in the Indo-Pacific region. Added funding is also vital to enable the U.S. military to counter Russia and deal with other persistent threats, such as those posed by Iran and North Korea, he says.

But the spending growth over fiscal 2024 is minimal. Proposed fiscal 2025 defense spending is only about a 1% increase over this year’s enacted total of $886.3 billion, or well below the current inflation rate. Defense leaders have long said defense appropriations need to increase 3 to 5% annually over inflation to support modernization.

The proposed amount is also low as a percentage of national income, better known as gross domestic product, according to Pentagon figures.

The $895.2 billion requested for defense represents about 3% of GDP, or a level not seen since the post-Cold War drawdown of the 1990s. In the 1950s, and through the Vietnam era, defense spending was typically 8 to 10% of GDP. It dropped to around 4.5% of GDP after the Vietnam War, but increased to about 6% of GDP during the defense buildup of the Reagan administration.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan during the Bush and Obama administrations saw defense spending rise to about 4% of GDP.

Most defense proponents in Congress advocate a return to spending 4% of GDP on defense. Some, including Sen. Roger Wicker, the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, say meeting current and emerging global threats requires annual defense appropriations to grow to 5% GDP over time.

The Biden administration was planning to ask for more than $900 billion for defense in fiscal 2025 before the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. Approved by Congress in the debt-limit deal last year, the agreement limited fiscal 2024 defense spending to the president’s budget request with only the 1% increase in fiscal 2025.

The Air Force helped get the figure down to $895.2 billion cap in the debt-limit by cutting 12 fighters — six F-15EX Eagle IIs and six F-35A Lightning IIs — set to go to the Air National Guard to replace aging F-15C Eagles in five states the service plans to retire.

Air Force officials didn’t include the 12 fighters in the unfunded priorities list they delivered to Congress on March 25, but they were on the chief of the National Guard Bureau’s UPL sent to Capitol Hill on March 28.

The services and some major commands have submitted UPLs annually after the budget release for several years. NGAUS helped the NGB chief secure the ability to submit a UPL in the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act.

We made tough, but responsible decisions.

—Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III

Some in Congress derisively call UPLs “wish lists.” Retired Col. Mike Hadley disagrees. He says many of the items are urgently needed to meet readiness and capacity requirements. “These items are often not just nice to have; they’re necessities,” Hadley insists.

Of the $895.2 billion proposed for defense, $849.8 billion is intended for the Defense Department. The rest is for national security programs within the Departments of Energy and Homeland Security. It includes a 4.5% pay increase for uniformed personnel troops and a 2% raise for civilian personnel.

“[Our budget request] is aligned to our strategy,” Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said in testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee’s defense subcommittee in early May. “We made tough, but responsible decisions that prioritize near-term readiness, modernization of the joint force and support for our troops and their families. Our approach dials back some near-term modernization for programs not set to come online until the 2030s.”

Overall, Air Force funding makes up 31% of the total DoD budget. The Navy would receive 31%, the Army would get 22% and defense-wide programs make up 17%, according to budget documents.

The percentages are somewhat deceiving. The Air Force’s $262.6 billion top line includes $45.1 billion the service won’t see. They are “pass-through” dollars that fund classified programs primarily in the intelligence community.

Also noteworthy in the Air Force is the number of aircraft retirements. The fiscal 2025 budget plan would divest 250 platforms, reducing the total inventory below 5,000 aircraft for the first time since before World War II.

The 250 include nearly 200 fighters, including 65 F-15C/Ds, 56 A-10C Thunderbolt II and 11 F-16 Fighting Falcons. Many of them are in the Air Guard. It’s part of the service’s “divest to invest” strategy to marshal funds to develop next-generation aircraft.

Army National Guard

The budget request maintains a total personnel end-strength of 325,000 soldiers and a force structure that includes 27 brigade combat teams, eight combat aviation brigades, two theater aviation brigades, one security force assistance brigade and one cyber brigade.

It would also boost the flying hour program by $32.3 million, increasing flight crew safety and flying proficiency to 7.5 hours per crew per month.

Equipment in the Army budget designated for the Army Guard includes 15 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters and 10 M109A7 Paladin self-propelled 155mm howitzers.

There is also $362,129,000 for Army Guard military construction projects in Alaska, Iowa, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Vermont and Washington.

Air National Guard

The budget request increases total personnel end-strength from 105,000 to 107,700 airmen. It maintains 21 combat-coded squadrons but divests 21 A-10C fighters, 55 F-15C/D fighters and six C-130H Hercules cargo planes.

It would also cover 142,290 flying hours, an increase of 12,653 hours, and provide 87% of weapon system sustainment funding for 879 aircraft. There is also funding to support increased operations and personnel for 20 new F-35As and 10 new F-15EXs procured in prior years.

Additionally, the request funds the “Mansfield Cyber Standup,” the initial standup of the Ohio Air Guard’s 179th Cyber Wing and critical enabling activities for the assigned offensive cyber mission.

There is also $190,792,000 for Air Guard military construction projects in Alaska, California, Florida, Hawaii, New Jersey, New York and Texas.

The author is the NGAUS director of communications. He can be reached at john.goheen@ngaus.org.

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AT A GLANCE

Fiscal 2024 Defense Budget Request

Overall

● Requests $849.8 billion for the Defense Department, an increase of $7.8 billion, or less than 1%, over fiscal 2024
● Includes $143.2 billion in research, development, test and evaluation and would also fund $167.5 billion for procurement
● Provides a 4.5% pay raise for the uniformed military personnel and 2% for civilian

Army National Guard

● Maintains personnel end-strength at 325,000
soldiers
● Sustains 27 brigade combat teams, one security force assistance brigade, eight combat aviation brigades, two theater aviation brigades and one cyber brigade
● Procures 15 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters and 10 M109A7 155mm self-propelled howitzers
● Increases flying-hour program by $32 million, boosting flight crew safety and flying proficiency to 7.5 hours per crew per month
● Funds major construction projects in 10 states

Air National Guard

● Increases personnel end-strength from 105,000 to 107,700 airmen
● Keeps 90 wings but reduces aircraft fleet from 921 to 879 aircraft
● Funds 142,290 flying hours, an increase of 12,653 hours over fiscal 2024
● Funds major construction projects in seven states

Source: Defense Department